Sunday, January 12, 2014

AAP is formed on anti-corruption plank. It originated from Anna Hazare's IAC movement when congress defied the public demands outrightly and outraged the whole nation. The movement soon took the imagination of the people and spread to all corners of the country. This overwhelming response to the movement incited a section of the leaders to gain political grounds and form a political party to take advantage of the imagination of the people. Though the senior most leaders shied away from political mileage, the opportunist section of the leaders formed a political party. The main leaders like Anna Hazare who was the face of the movement had no aspirations and he decided not to support the political debut. Leaders like Kiran Bedi, Santosh Hedge, Medha Patkar and the strong faces of the movement too were against this opportunism. But Arvind Kejriwal and Prashant Bhushan were inclined towards not letting such opportunity go to waste and formed a political party and took the 3rd rung leaders of the movement along with them. Team IAC broke and Team Kejriwal emerged. Can we take it against Kejriwal. The answer in my opinion is NO as long as the intentions are right. Do we know the intention? The answer is again NO. So the best thing for the moment is to give them time so that the face of the intention emerges.

Their anti-corruption plank worked because they offered us one thing none of the others were offering us and that was participatory democracy. The word of caution here is too much of the govt in our normal lives is also very damaging. The best way is to reduce the level of govt in normal lives. The more you take proactive measures to remove govt from lives, the better. Arvind Kejriwal is yet to learn that.

In order to form Govt, AAP had to take outside support from Congress, the very organisation who was responsible for their creation and win. The base of their anti-corruption plank was the mega scams emerged during UPA rule by UPA ministers. Since the national election was nearing, AAP realised the anti-congress plank will not work as BJP was the major player and likely to gain from the ill governance of congress and made a strategic shift to paint the congress and the BJP with same brush. In every statement thereafter, whenever AAP found a fault of congress, they would say yeh congress-BJP jaise log hamare desh ke liye ache nahi hai, in an attempt to instil the same apathy in our minds for BJP which we feel for congress. Very conveniently they forgot that corruption was not earning them votes, mega corruption was earning them votes. Do we know which was the mega scam that indicts BJP. Is there any mega scam in India that we can safely attribute to BJP or NDA. There is none. The last three years of mega flip flops by the UPA that created apathy in our minds were 2G scam, Coalgate scam, CWG scam, Adarsh scam and some social issues like the Nirbhaya case. In all these scams and social issues, BJP in its own way, fought against the UPA. So the AAP strategy to paint BJP with the same brush has no truth but vote catching appeal. This strategy along with media honeymoon with the newest kid in the block gave AAP an edge over other political parties and the result is in front of us.

The ever unethical Congress saw a huge opportunity in AAP. They realised they have no way to stop the Modi wave on their own. So they started propping up AAP. This gimmick is not new for congress. In 2009 state election in Maharashtra, it was propping MNS. The result was MNS cut into Shiv Sena-BJP votes in 10 seats which were Sena strongholds. If MNS was not contesting, the result would have been Sena-BJP-30 seats, Congress-NCP-15 seats and others 3 seats. MNS factor showed the final result as Sena-BJP-20 seats, Congress-NCP-25 seats and others 3 seats. MNS by fighting elections gave Maharashtra to Congress on a platter. Congress is hoping to replicate the same model to deprive BJP of 30 seats. If Modi gets 30 seats lesser, they would find it extremely difficult to form the Govt. Congress, though might not come to power but who comes to power in that case. Do we want a 3rd front govt. Are they more honest than BJP? Can they bring in more development than the BJP? Will they be better decision makers on internal and external security? Do they have better ideas in regard to India's foreign policy, naxalism, and Kashmir issue? If not 3rd front, do we expect emergence of a 4th front of few smaller parties with congress and its allies giving outside support? Are we ready for such mockery of our democracy?

Let us analyse what AAP stands to gain in this elections. As per their own estimates and other estimates AAP may win 20-50 seats in this election. To make Kejriwal our Prime Minister, we need to have 272 seats. Who will bring in the balance seats. Congress and other UPA allies may have 100-150 seats. BJP and its allies will have 200-225 seats, Mayawati and Mulayam - 20 each, JDU and Lalu will have 20 seats, CPI and Mamta may have 50-60 seats. Who shall form the Govt then?

Do you think Kejriwal can provide us stable govt with a handful of senior leaders he knows well but most of the candidates are new in his party. How will be put a check on every political party when one is based in West Bengal, other in UP and another in south India. Every single day we will stand a chance that one party will pull out of its support and the govt will fall. Or we want a formal tie up of AAP with congress so that the risk is minimised.

Let us also analyse the situation from another perspective. What if AAP is not fighting this election. BJP gets 220 seats, allies get another 30 seats, and with a tie-up with Jayalalitha, they form a govt. Do we question the stability of the govt? Do we question the governance skills of Modi? Do we find NDA and its allies very corrupt. Did Vajpayee govt rule of 6 years gave any reason for us to believe they will involve themselves in mega scams? Does the governance skills of Modi in Gujarat raises any question mark about its decision making abilities or ill conceived policies. The telecom policy under NDA rule made a rural indian carry a mobile phone and generates more revenue than we can spend on Food Security. The best infra project in India's history of 67 years post independence is the golden triangle project taken up during NDA rule. Do we question their development plank?


We do not have to distrust AAP but we need to take a wise decision because it effects our future. Euphoria should not blind our decision making ability. I hope India will opt for the most appropriate decision.