AAP is formed on anti-corruption
plank. It originated from Anna Hazare's IAC movement when congress defied the
public demands outrightly and outraged the whole nation. The movement soon took
the imagination of the people and spread to all corners of the country. This
overwhelming response to the movement incited a section of the leaders to gain
political grounds and form a political party to take advantage of the
imagination of the people. Though the senior most leaders shied away from
political mileage, the opportunist section of the leaders formed a political
party. The main leaders like Anna Hazare who was the face of the movement had
no aspirations and he decided not to support the political debut. Leaders like
Kiran Bedi, Santosh Hedge, Medha Patkar and the strong faces of the movement
too were against this opportunism. But Arvind Kejriwal and Prashant Bhushan
were inclined towards not letting such opportunity go to waste and formed a
political party and took the 3rd rung leaders of the movement along with them.
Team IAC broke and Team Kejriwal emerged. Can we take it against Kejriwal. The
answer in my opinion is NO as long as the intentions are right. Do we know the
intention? The answer is again NO. So the best thing for the moment is to give
them time so that the face of the intention emerges.
Their anti-corruption plank
worked because they offered us one thing none of the others were offering us
and that was participatory democracy. The word of caution here is too much of
the govt in our normal lives is also very damaging. The best way is to reduce
the level of govt in normal lives. The more you take proactive measures to
remove govt from lives, the better. Arvind Kejriwal is yet to learn that.
In order to form Govt, AAP had to
take outside support from Congress, the very organisation who was responsible
for their creation and win. The base of their anti-corruption plank was the
mega scams emerged during UPA rule by UPA ministers. Since the national
election was nearing, AAP realised the anti-congress plank will not work as BJP
was the major player and likely to gain from the ill governance of congress and
made a strategic shift to paint the congress and the BJP with same brush. In
every statement thereafter, whenever AAP found a fault of congress, they would
say yeh congress-BJP jaise log hamare desh ke liye ache nahi hai, in an attempt
to instil the same apathy in our minds for BJP which we feel for congress. Very
conveniently they forgot that corruption was not earning them votes, mega
corruption was earning them votes. Do we know which was the mega scam that
indicts BJP. Is there any mega scam in India that we can safely attribute to
BJP or NDA. There is none. The last three years of mega flip flops by the UPA
that created apathy in our minds were 2G scam, Coalgate scam, CWG scam, Adarsh
scam and some social issues like the Nirbhaya case. In all these scams and
social issues, BJP in its own way, fought against the UPA. So the AAP strategy
to paint BJP with the same brush has no truth but vote catching appeal. This
strategy along with media honeymoon with the newest kid in the block gave AAP
an edge over other political parties and the result is in front of us.
The ever unethical Congress saw a
huge opportunity in AAP. They realised they have no way to stop the Modi wave
on their own. So they started propping up AAP. This gimmick is not new for
congress. In 2009 state election in Maharashtra, it was propping MNS. The
result was MNS cut into Shiv Sena-BJP votes in 10 seats which were Sena
strongholds. If MNS was not contesting, the result would have been Sena-BJP-30
seats, Congress-NCP-15 seats and others 3 seats. MNS factor showed the final
result as Sena-BJP-20 seats, Congress-NCP-25 seats and others 3 seats. MNS by
fighting elections gave Maharashtra to Congress on a platter. Congress is
hoping to replicate the same model to deprive BJP of 30 seats. If Modi gets 30
seats lesser, they would find it extremely difficult to form the Govt.
Congress, though might not come to power but who comes to power in that case.
Do we want a 3rd front govt. Are they more honest than BJP? Can they bring in
more development than the BJP? Will they be better decision makers on internal
and external security? Do they have better ideas in regard to India's foreign
policy, naxalism, and Kashmir issue? If not 3rd front, do we expect emergence
of a 4th front of few smaller parties with congress and its allies giving
outside support? Are we ready for such mockery of our democracy?
Let us analyse what AAP stands to
gain in this elections. As per their own estimates and other estimates AAP may
win 20-50 seats in this election. To make Kejriwal our Prime Minister, we need
to have 272 seats. Who will bring in the balance seats. Congress and other UPA
allies may have 100-150 seats. BJP and its allies will have 200-225 seats,
Mayawati and Mulayam - 20 each, JDU and Lalu will have 20 seats, CPI and Mamta
may have 50-60 seats. Who shall form the Govt then?
Do you think Kejriwal can provide
us stable govt with a handful of senior leaders he knows well but most of the
candidates are new in his party. How will be put a check on every political
party when one is based in West Bengal, other in UP and another in south India.
Every single day we will stand a chance that one party will pull out of its
support and the govt will fall. Or we want a formal tie up of AAP with congress
so that the risk is minimised.
Let us also analyse the situation
from another perspective. What if AAP is not fighting this election. BJP gets
220 seats, allies get another 30 seats, and with a tie-up with Jayalalitha,
they form a govt. Do we question the stability of the govt? Do we question the
governance skills of Modi? Do we find NDA and its allies very corrupt. Did
Vajpayee govt rule of 6 years gave any reason for us to believe they will
involve themselves in mega scams? Does the governance skills of Modi in Gujarat
raises any question mark about its decision making abilities or ill conceived
policies. The telecom policy under NDA rule made a rural indian carry a mobile
phone and generates more revenue than we can spend on Food Security. The best
infra project in India's history of 67 years post independence is the golden
triangle project taken up during NDA rule. Do we question their development
plank?
We do not have to distrust AAP
but we need to take a wise decision because it effects our future. Euphoria
should not blind our decision making ability. I hope India will opt for the
most appropriate decision.